Happy Halloween, kids! This year, mom and I are home alone, with only Tracey even close enough to visit, and generally she has other things to do. That's okay. If I had someplace to go, I'd go there, too. That's what your mother does. Most days she works. Scaring little kids. No need for her to wait for Halloween.
Well, your futures look bright if you can just stay in school a bit longer. The economic news is still grim, but most indicators continue to stumble haltingly but steadily up. Four more years ought to do it.
The natives are restless. Since last Halloween, Republicans have taken over the US House and 25 state legislatures (11 new including North Carolina's). This just two years after the flaming electoral crash that left them still and lifeless in 2008.
They rode in on a wave of Tea Party euphoria, some monstrously big funding from some very rich Republicans, ghoulish voter discontent with "big government" and a neurotic yearning for a tighter fiscal belt. Folks forgot that being short of cash is pretty much a given in an economic downturn. Over the next 12 months, quarterly GDP growth dropped from almost 4% down to .04%. Palpable horrors began to take hold of the dreaded double-dip recession.
But it's okay because almost as soon as they got in, most of the Republicans reverted to form and started chasing the queers, the welfare queens and the unions. In North Carolina they made some spending cuts, to schools mainly, but they seem more interested in school resegregation, stamping out abortion rights and making gay marriage even more illegal than it already is.
Now instead of budget cuts, Washington Republicans hanker to cut taxes on all the people who have any money left, like really rich people and corporations reporting record profits. That takes more money away from the one entity that really is short of cash, the federal government. Remember the Eddie Murphy routine on how in the future Robitussin will be used to cure everything including AIDS? That's pretty much how Republicans feel about tax cuts.
But as to an actual jobs bill, it appears the US Congress couldn't pass one of those if their own jobs depended on it. How ironic.
Republicans have their sights set on the White House in 2012. And that, too, looks within reach. Right now, when people are asked whether they'd vote for a Republican or President Obama, the President routinely loses.
It's only when matched against an actual candidate that Obama wins, and that explains why Republicans are still looking for another candidate. John Stuart Mill once opined that while not all conservatives are stupid, stupid people are generally conservatives, but these Republicans aren't so dumb.
The one candidate who looks like he could give the President a run for his money is the one Republicans really don't care for. Nobody seems to like Mitt Romney much. He's the original spoiled little rich kid. And he's insecure to boot. He'll say anything to be popular. What he ought to do is just offer to pay down the national debt. There's also this problem he has with Republicans who think he's a Democrat.
If the economy keeping plodding along, as economists predict, things will probably be all better before Congress comes up with an action plan, no matter who we elect.
GDP improved 2.5% in the 3rd quarter. Federal receipts in FY'11 increased almost 7% over FY'10. Actual spending (excluding TARP adjustments) increased less than half of one percent for the year. The deficit grew only 1.8% despite a predictably huge jump in interest costs. The private sector has added 1.3 million jobs so far in 2011. (The public sector has lost jobs.)
People don't feel good though. Unemployment remains over 9%. Some 20 million people, like me, would like work and can't find any. The real estate market will be a drag on growth for years to come, banks are scared to death and it appears to be the one area the government is loathe to touch. We're a consumer-driven economy, and there is no consumer demand.
A federal small-business lending fund, created in 2010, with $30 billion for small business lending, expired in September having disbursed just $4 billion. There were a lot of reasons (bureaucratic dull-wittedness, onerous lending terms, arthritic processing), but one of the biggest was that small businesses didn't want to take on debt. Why expand if you don't believe customers are going to be coming in the door anyway? The problem was a lack of demand, not a lack of credit.
What to do? Like Charlie told Alan when the latter's marriage fell apart, and Judith threw him out, and Jake's hamster Porkie died, "I don�t know. Why don�t we toss Porky in the ocean and go get bombed?" To which Alan replied, "God, How could you! How could you! Okay."
You won't be alone. Halloween is party time in any financial season, perhaps this one more than most. "Ghouls and goblins galore, Halloween celebrations will be BOOming this year as more people than ever are expected to partake in traditional festivities," says the Natioonal Retail Foundation. Or as the poet E.A. Houseman wrote in "Terrence," "Look into the pewter pot, and see the world as the world is not."
161 million people plan on celebrating Halloween this year, the highest figure in the history of the NRF's annual Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, The average person will spend $72.31 on decorations, costumes and candy, up from $66.28 last year. Total Halloween spending is expected to reach $6.86 billion.
| • 43.9% plan to dress up in costumes (vs. 40.1% in 2010) |
| • 14.7% will dress up their pets (a growing trend) |
| • 34.3% will attend a party |
| • 73.5% will hand out candy |
| • 47.8% will carve a pumpkin |
| • 22.9% will visit a haunted house |
| • 32.9% will take their children trick-or-treating |
| • 49.5% will decorate their home or yard (down from 50.1% last year) |
And most plan to drink just a butt-load of beer. When did it become such an adult holiday? I guess once the retailers figured out the baby boomers had grown up. Remember to keep your wits about you, and stay safe out there. Some of the people wearing masks really are bad guys. Or worse, bankers.
Love,
Dad
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